{
  "id": "riskg-loss-estimation",
  "type": "risk-guideline",
  "languages": {
    "en": {
      "id": "riskg-loss-estimation",
      "lang": "en",
      "type": "risk-guideline",
      "title": "Loss Estimation (MFL/EML)",
      "shortDefinition": "Loss estimation (MFL/EML) is the risk engineering methodology used to derive the largest realistically expected loss for a property and business interruption exposure, forming the technical basis for the probable maximum loss (PML) concept.",
      "synonyms": [
        "Maximum Foreseeable Loss",
        "Estimated Maximum Loss",
        "Normal Loss Expectancy"
      ],
      "linesOfBusiness": [
        "Property",
        "Business interruption"
      ],
      "jurisdictions": [
        "Global"
      ],
      "tags": [
        "Risk assessment",
        "Risk engineering"
      ],
      "relations": {
        "relatedTerms": [
          "term-pml",
          "riskg-risk-survey"
        ],
        "partOf": [],
        "appliesTo": [
          "cov-property-all-risks",
          "cov-business-interruption"
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        "regulatedBy": [],
        "relevantFor": [],
        "insurableVia": [],
        "mitigatedBy": [],
        "comprises": [],
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      "legalBasis": [],
      "standards": [
        "ISO 31000:2018 – Risk management — Guidelines"
      ],
      "reviewStatus": "expert-reviewed",
      "reviewedBy": "Guido Hesse, Hesse Group Holding AG",
      "lastReviewed": "2026-09-04",
      "version": "0.1.0",
      "updated": "2026-09-01",
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        "at": "2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z"
      },
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      "url": "https://hgh.ch/lexikon/en/knowledge/risk-engineering/loss-estimation-mfl-eml/",
      "alternateUrl": "https://hgh.ch/lexikon/de/wissen/risk-engineering/schadenschaetzung-mfl-eml/",
      "body": "## Concepts and boundaries\n\nThe Maximum Foreseeable Loss (MFL) assumes the complete failure of all protection features – sprinklers, fire walls, works fire brigade – and represents the theoretical extreme case. The Estimated Maximum Loss (EML), in many markets used interchangeably with the probable maximum loss (PML), assumes a realistically unfavourable scenario in which most, but not all, protection measures function. For business interruption, the Normal Loss Expectancy (NLE) is the equivalent figure for loss of income.\n\n## Approach\n\nThe starting point is the risk survey: compartment sizes, separation distances, sprinkler density, and replacement and start-up times are condensed into a loss scenario. For business interruption, a worst-case analysis of the indemnity period supplements the property loss estimate; interdependency losses between group companies and critical suppliers are quantified separately.\n\n## Insurance relevance\n\nThe results determine underwriting capacity, co-insurance shares, reinsurance structure and deductibles per location. Sums insured or indemnity periods that are systematically set too low regularly only become apparent as a coverage gap after a major loss."
    },
    "de": {
      "id": "riskg-loss-estimation",
      "lang": "de",
      "type": "risk-guideline",
      "title": "Schadenschätzung (MFL/EML)",
      "shortDefinition": "Die Schadenschätzung (MFL/EML) ist die risikoingenieurtechnische Methodik, mit der für ein Sach- und Betriebsunterbrechungsrisiko der grösste realistischerweise zu erwartende Schaden hergeleitet wird, und bildet damit die fachliche Grundlage für den Höchstschaden-Begriff (PML).",
      "synonyms": [
        "Maximum Foreseeable Loss",
        "Estimated Maximum Loss",
        "Normal Loss Expectancy"
      ],
      "linesOfBusiness": [
        "Sach",
        "Betriebsunterbrechung"
      ],
      "jurisdictions": [
        "Global"
      ],
      "tags": [
        "Risikobewertung",
        "Risk Engineering"
      ],
      "relations": {
        "relatedTerms": [
          "term-pml",
          "riskg-risk-survey"
        ],
        "partOf": [],
        "appliesTo": [
          "cov-property-all-risks",
          "cov-business-interruption"
        ],
        "regulatedBy": [],
        "relevantFor": [],
        "insurableVia": [],
        "mitigatedBy": [],
        "comprises": [],
        "alternativeTo": [],
        "complementedBy": []
      },
      "attribute": null,
      "profile": null,
      "coverageProfile": null,
      "clause": null,
      "legalBasis": [],
      "standards": [
        "ISO 31000:2018 – Risk management — Guidelines"
      ],
      "reviewStatus": "expert-reviewed",
      "reviewedBy": "Guido Hesse, Hesse Group Holding AG",
      "lastReviewed": "2026-09-04",
      "version": "0.1.0",
      "updated": "2026-09-01",
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        "at": "2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z"
      },
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      "url": "https://hgh.ch/lexikon/de/wissen/risk-engineering/schadenschaetzung-mfl-eml/",
      "alternateUrl": "https://hgh.ch/lexikon/en/knowledge/risk-engineering/loss-estimation-mfl-eml/",
      "body": "## Begriffe und Abgrenzung\n\nDer Maximum Foreseeable Loss (MFL) unterstellt den vollständigen Ausfall aller Schutzeinrichtungen – Sprinkler, Brandmauern, Werkfeuerwehr – und bildet den theoretischen Extremfall. Der Estimated Maximum Loss (EML), in vielen Märkten sinngemäss mit dem Höchstschaden (PML) gleichgesetzt, geht von einem realistisch ungünstigen Szenario aus, bei dem wesentliche, aber nicht alle Schutzmassnahmen wirken. Für die Betriebsunterbrechung tritt die Normal Loss Expectancy als Ertragsausfall-Pendant hinzu.\n\n## Vorgehen\n\nGrundlage ist die Risikobesichtigung: Brandabschnittsgrössen, Abstände, Sprinklerdichte sowie Wiederbeschaffungs- und Wiederanlaufzeiten werden zu einem Schadenszenario verdichtet. Für die Betriebsunterbrechung ergänzt eine Worst-Case-Analyse der Haftzeit die Sachschadenschätzung; Interdependenzschäden zwischen Konzerngesellschaften und kritischen Lieferanten werden gesondert quantifiziert.\n\n## Versicherungsrelevanz\n\nDie Ergebnisse bestimmen Zeichnungskapazität, Mitversicherungsanteile, Rückversicherungsstruktur und Selbstbehalte je Standort. Systematisch zu niedrig angesetzte Versicherungssummen oder Haftzeiten zeigen sich regelmässig erst im Grossschadenfall als Deckungslücke."
    }
  }
}